SCDigest
Editorial Staff
SCDigest Says: |
Some would argue that because the targeted audience is made up of RFID vendors (the same holds true for market sizing estimates in any technology area), the surveys have a tendency to bias the numbers upward, because vendors are more likely to purchase studies that forecast strong growth than ones that are less optimistic.
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As we continue in the “post Wal-Mart” era of RFID, it seems to Supply Chain Digest that the number of studies being released that estimate the size of the RFID market in North America and worldwide has slowed.
Still, they are not uncommon, as exemplified this week by a new report from ABI Research that projects global RFID sales of $5.3 billion in 2008.
What does that number really mean? And should average companies care?
A few points of clarification are worth noting.
First, the majority of these studies are conducted by firms that make their money from selling the market studies to RFID-related vendors. Like any industry, many solution providers in a market such as RFID are interested in estimates in the size of that market and its projected growth rates to help guide investment and marketing decisions.
Some would argue that because the targeted audience is made up of RFID vendors (the same holds true for market sizing estimates in any technology area), the surveys have a tendency to bias the numbers upward, because vendors are more likely to purchase studies that forecast strong growth than ones that are less optimistic.
The research firms generally issue “teaser” press releases that offer a few highlights of the report without giving away too much of the full report that they offer for sale.
Wildly Different Numbers
In RFID market sizing estimates, as with any technology market studies, there can be huge differences in market size numbers offered by different research companies – differences sometimes in the billions of dollars.
How is that possible? Some of it is related to methodology, but the biggest question has to do with what is included in the market size numbers – it is rarely an apples to apples comparison between the numbers in different studies.
RFID is especially challenging in terms of market definition. The hardware numbers are fairly straightforward. How many readers and tags are going to be sold, and at what price?
(RFID and Automatic Identification Article - Continued Below)
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