Well, it only took seven years.
It was in 2003 when WalMart made its first announcement relative to a supplier “mandate” for RFID-tagged pallets and cases, and then a year or two of mania as the RFID-industrial complex saw the potential for a few years of “gold rush” style sales levels coming from the WalMart program.
Then it didn’t happen. The WalMart program went sideways, then stalled, then almost completely went away. Other retailers and manufacturers waiting for WalMart to make it happen first found the whole consumer goods-to-retail RFID concept not only lagged, but ultimately retreated from where it was in 2003. People who were focused on RFID at their companies went on to other things.
Venture capitalists and others who had bet big on a WalMart gold rush lost their shirts. RFID went from being like the main topic at many conferences and events in 2004 to less emphasis in 2005 to hardly on the agenda if at all by 2007.
The original mania was clearly too much at the time, but yet there was something very exciting about the interest in a new technology that was thought to be a real game changer – and which would drive lots of spending for new technology and create many career opportunities in manufacturers and retailers. WalMart’s Simon Langford, who headed its RFID efforts, seemed to be everywhere.
Seven years later, it just might be coming back. WalMart’s announcement of a new RFID initiative, this time focused on apparel, has RFID technology providers getting quite excited again – and this time on much more solid ground. (See Will WalMart get RFID Right This Time?)
The fact that this will be an item-level initiative is said to mean some 250 million tags will be required annually for WalMart’s needs alone, just in the men’s jeans and basics categories it is focusing on first. Billions more annually if the program expands.
America Apparel is in the midst of a chain wide item-level roll out. JC Penny is soon jumping on too, and other apparel and footwear retailers are likely announce RFID programs soon as well. In fact, all this may cause a bit of a mad dash to not be the last apparel retailer in the boat. The value prop looks pretty darn good.
This of course will not only mean lots of tag sales, but readers and printers and software both at the apparel retailers and their suppliers. The good times for at least parts of the RFID industry may actually finally be here.
Will this be the catalyst that then ultimately drives RFID back into the more basic consumer packaged goods area where EPC really started?
Just maybe.
But for the near term, RFID in retail is back, and this time it is sticking.
Expect changes to conference agendas to be in the works as we speak.
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